Ebola outbreak, and other potential epidemics

Discussion of the latest Peak Oil news (please also check the Website News area below)

Moderator: Peak Moderation

User avatar
biffvernon
Posts: 18539
Joined: Thu Nov 24, 2005 11:09 am
Location: Lincolnshire
Contact:

Post by biffvernon »

We know what the problem is, we know the consequences of inaction, we know what to do and how to do it, but we dither about allowing the problem to get worse by the day.

Just like with global warming only speeded up by about two orders of magnitude.

Has the gulf between science and politics ever been greater?
User avatar
Mean Mr Mustard
Posts: 1555
Joined: Sun Dec 31, 2006 12:14 pm
Location: Cambridgeshire

Post by Mean Mr Mustard »

1855 Advertisement for Kier's Rock Oil -
"Hurry, before this wonderful product is depleted from Nature’s laboratory."

The Future's so Bright, I gotta wear Night Vision Goggles...
fuzzy
Posts: 1388
Joined: Fri Nov 29, 2013 3:08 pm
Location: The Marches, UK

Post by fuzzy »

Mean Mr Mustard wrote:Recommended read -

http://www.psandman.com/col/Ebola-3.htm

Similair ideas here:

http://biosurveillance.typepad.com/bios ... ponse.html
User avatar
RenewableCandy
Posts: 12679
Joined: Wed Sep 12, 2007 12:13 pm
Location: York

Post by RenewableCandy »

Aaarrgh wrong thread!
Last edited by RenewableCandy on Sat Nov 01, 2014 8:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Soyez réaliste. Demandez l'impossible.
Stories
The Price of Time
fifthcolumn
Posts: 2525
Joined: Thu Nov 22, 2007 2:07 pm

Post by fifthcolumn »

Mean Mr Mustard wrote:Grimmest report I've seen so far.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/o ... ease-fight
God that breaks my heart. Toddler in the house with dead body of father, knocking on the door trying to get out. Mother already buried. Toddler is already infected.
User avatar
Mean Mr Mustard
Posts: 1555
Joined: Sun Dec 31, 2006 12:14 pm
Location: Cambridgeshire

Post by Mean Mr Mustard »

RenewableCandy wrote:Aaarrgh wrong thread!
Was wondering all day why I was a Devious Fecker.. :D Kinda disappointed to have this badge of honour withdrawn. 8)
1855 Advertisement for Kier's Rock Oil -
"Hurry, before this wonderful product is depleted from Nature’s laboratory."

The Future's so Bright, I gotta wear Night Vision Goggles...
fuzzy
Posts: 1388
Joined: Fri Nov 29, 2013 3:08 pm
Location: The Marches, UK

Post by fuzzy »

Mean Mr Mustard wrote:
RenewableCandy wrote:Aaarrgh wrong thread!
Was wondering all day why I was a Devious Fecker.. :D Kinda disappointed to have this badge of honour withdrawn. 8)
Yeah, I was wondering how my cover was blown. Perhaps I could start a deviant support line.
User avatar
adam2
Site Admin
Posts: 8294
Joined: Mon Jul 02, 2007 5:49 pm
Location: North Somerset

Post by adam2 »

This report suggests that the spread may be slowing.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-29847058
Though as others have posted, reports elsewhere are less optimistic.
"Installers and owners of emergency diesels must assume that they will have to run for a week or more"
User avatar
Mean Mr Mustard
Posts: 1555
Joined: Sun Dec 31, 2006 12:14 pm
Location: Cambridgeshire

Post by Mean Mr Mustard »

Good resource here.

http://www.eboladeeply.org/
1855 Advertisement for Kier's Rock Oil -
"Hurry, before this wonderful product is depleted from Nature’s laboratory."

The Future's so Bright, I gotta wear Night Vision Goggles...
User avatar
clv101
Site Admin
Posts: 8854
Joined: Thu Nov 24, 2005 11:09 am
Contact:

Post by clv101 »

Models overestimate Ebola cases
Rate of infection in Liberia seems to plateau, raising questions over the usefulness of models in an outbreak.
http://www.nature.com/news/models-overe ... es-1.16279
snow hope
Posts: 4101
Joined: Thu Nov 24, 2005 11:09 am
Location: outside Belfast, N Ireland

Post by snow hope »

I think we have to be very careful to draw those conclusions. It quite clearly says in the linked report that,

"Researchers are now struggling to understand whether reports of empty beds at treatment centres and declining burial numbers are signs that fewer people are developing Ebola, or whether cases and deaths are going unrecorded" - my highlighting

The fact that so many sick people have been turned away from hospitals over the last few weeks and that the disease is stigmatised in the countries concerned, highlights that it may indeed be due to cases being unrecorded, ie. poor data
Real money is gold and silver
snow hope
Posts: 4101
Joined: Thu Nov 24, 2005 11:09 am
Location: outside Belfast, N Ireland

Post by snow hope »

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-29888067

Very sad report. :( I presume all these dead bodies will be counted in the stats? :?
Real money is gold and silver
User avatar
biffvernon
Posts: 18539
Joined: Thu Nov 24, 2005 11:09 am
Location: Lincolnshire
Contact:

Post by biffvernon »

clv101 wrote:Models overestimate Ebola cases
Rate of infection in Liberia seems to plateau, raising questions over the usefulness of models in an outbreak.
http://www.nature.com/news/models-overe ... es-1.16279
This seems the key section:
In the meantime, Bruce Aylward, a WHO assistant director-general who is coordinating the agency’s Ebola efforts, is “terrified” that any plateau in new cases will be misinterpreted as meaning that the problem is going away. There is still a need to greatly increase the resources available to treat infected people and prevent new cases, Aylward says.

But if the slowing rate of infection in Liberia is confirmed, it could suggest that even moderate levels of public-health intervention can pay off, says Golding. For the current Ebola outbreak, the average number of new cases spawned by an infected individual — 1.2–2.2 — is much lower than that of many other communicable diseases, such as measles (which can spread to between 12 and 18 people per case). As Ebola prevention measures push down this figure, the disease becomes easier to control; when it dips below 1, virus spread stops completely.
Modelling when one doesn't know if the spread rate is 1.2 or 2.2 must be tricky.
boisdevie
Posts: 460
Joined: Wed Dec 26, 2012 6:48 pm
Location: N Lancashire

Post by boisdevie »

My own approach would be to proceed using very pessimistic assumptions. I suspect TPTB will proceed using optimistic assumptions.
User avatar
clv101
Site Admin
Posts: 8854
Joined: Thu Nov 24, 2005 11:09 am
Contact:

Post by clv101 »

And of course the nature of exponential growth, halting in one area (say Liberia) will quickly be irrelevant if it continues unabated in another area (say Sierra Leone).
Post Reply