Ebola outbreak, and other potential epidemics

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vtsnowedin
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Post by vtsnowedin »

:shock: Dallas Texas healthcare worker that wore full gear tests positive.
So the R naught in America in a hospital is at least 1.0 They are moving quickly to stop the spread from this case but I fear those efforts will get overwhelmed if the case load gets above a level where they can hold a press conference for each new case.
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Mean Mr Mustard
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Post by Mean Mr Mustard »

clv101 wrote:This documentary gives an idea of what the situation on the ground is like:

http://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=yout ... NUI4uT3xJI
Thanks for the link Chris.

The Director who advised keeping calm and rational to avoid fatal mistakes was absolutely right. Real bravery going on there.
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Post by madibe »

@23:30 - 24:30 the most powerful words.
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Post by boisdevie »

Spanish nurse infected.
American health worker infected.

And what happens when health workers decide that theyd rather be fired than go to work?
tpals
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Post by tpals »

Part of the problem is the CDC is only requiring level 2 protection.
vtsnowedin
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Post by vtsnowedin »

boisdevie wrote:Spanish nurse infected.
American health worker infected.

And what happens when health workers decide that theyd rather be fired than go to work?
The doubling time for cases decreases and the death rate increases.
fifthcolumn
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Post by fifthcolumn »

Looks like it's progressively more dangerous to be near someone the closer they are to death.

It also looks similar to rabies in that if you get treatment quickly (i.e. within 1-3 days of showing symptoms) your chances of surviving are greatly increased. Otherwise you're basically a body waiting in line to be buried.

I wouldn't want to be treating someone who has been symptomatic for 5 or more days.

If this thing starts to get out of control in places other than west africa I think they're going to have to start taking increasingly drastic action such as delineating between those who can be saved without infecting others too much and those whom the risk of infections by treating them is too high.

Modern day plague villages in other words.
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Catweazle
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Post by Catweazle »

If word spreads that nurses in full protective gear are still getting infected we could see them simply stay at home. If hospitals are understaffed people with symptoms will stay at home too, spreading it around.
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Mean Mr Mustard
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Post by Mean Mr Mustard »

Already happening in W Africa where they are being forced into a policy of home 'treatment' due to the massive number of cases. The success of the nursing student who used improvised barrier nursing techniques with bin liners etc and IV will surely be a one-off.
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Mean Mr Mustard
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Post by Mean Mr Mustard »

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Post by clv101 »

Following the film from Liberia linked above, here's an account from Sierra Leone: http://pfmhcolumbia.wordpress.com/2014/ ... oking-bad/
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Post by biffvernon »

There seems to be a yawning gulf between that report from Les Roberts and what is happening in the UK.

This from the Royal Navy's website about RFA Argus, the hospital ship currently being supplied in Falmouth and setting sale some time later this week.
The UK armed forces have so far played a pivotal role in delivering the current British support as they work with the government of Sierra Leone to tackle the crisis.

Using British expertise and local building contractors, the UK has committed to support 700 new beds in Ebola treatment facilities.

This new package will further support the country’s stretched public health services in containing the disease by helping up to nearly 8,800 patients over a 6-month period.

Military personnel will deploy to Sierra Leone next week where they will join military engineers and planners who have been in country for almost a month, overseeing the construction of the medical facilities.
http://www.royalnavy.mod.uk/news-and-la ... est-africa

"helping up to nearly 8,800 patients over a 6-month period" What is it about the Royal Navy or its political masters that stops them understanding exponential growth?
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Mean Mr Mustard
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Post by Mean Mr Mustard »

biffvernon wrote:
"helping up to nearly 8,800 patients over a 6-month period" What is it about the Royal Navy or its political masters that stops them understanding exponential growth?
Only positive happy reportage is allowed in MOD propaganda. It's not aimed at an informed or cynical readership. Still, it's better than nothing, might save a few lives... Is the US DoD supplying ten times that support - because that's the relative difference in UK and US resources.

Given the doubling rate, even that would be an exercise in futility.
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Post by RenewableCandy »

How long, if one actually recovers, does it take a previous ebola victim to get back to full health, I wonder? Because after that time, it would be possible to begin staffing hospitals with people who are immune to the disease. Of course, they themselves would have to live at their workplace, to stop them spreading the disease elsewhere.

Put it this way, if the workplace paid and fed me, and I was an otherwise unemployed and desperately poor African, it would be a choice worth considering.
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UndercoverElephant
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Post by UndercoverElephant »

clv101 wrote:Following the film from Liberia linked above, here's an account from Sierra Leone: http://pfmhcolumbia.wordpress.com/2014/ ... oking-bad/
Yep, that just about sums up how bad it is looking. The ability of the authorities to deal with this outbreak has already been overwhelmed, and result is that the situation is now in the process of accelerating towards total catastrophe. This is ebola we are talking about, and the best strategy left to deal with it is for people to be left to die at home, and hope that a few gloves will protect other people living in the same house from infection. It won't. I can only see one possible outcome from the current situation, and that is the exposure of the entire population of these three countries to ebola. The Big Question remains unanswered, and that is whether it is even possible (let alone whether it will actually happen) to stop the outbreak from getting to this point-of-no-return in other countries. If the answer to that question is "no" then we are looking at an eventual death toll that will run into billions.

This is not scaremongering or doomerish pessimism. It is quite obvious that the situation in West Africa is catastrophically out of control, and unless it can be contained in those three countries then there is no reason to believe the same thing is not going to happen elsewhere.
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