Ebola outbreak, and other potential epidemics

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madibe
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Post by madibe »

I found this - very interesting:

http://ecologicallyoriented.wordpress.c ... -epidemic/

He comes up with a figure of 1.66 based on the infectious period of 12 days, somewhat lower if only infectious for a week.

So yes, most definately exponential growth in the current populations. How this would translate to a western health care model is the question, as the formula to calculate Ro would be skewed, at least initially due to efficient quarantine procedures.
vtsnowedin
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Post by vtsnowedin »

maudibe wrote:I found this - very interesting:

http://ecologicallyoriented.wordpress.c ... -epidemic/

He comes up with a figure of 1.66 based on the infectious period of 12 days, somewhat lower if only infectious for a week.

So yes, most definately exponential growth in the current populations. How this would translate to a western health care model is the question, as the formula to calculate Ro would be skewed, at least initially due to efficient quarantine procedures.
I have my doubts about how efficient detection and quarantine procedures will be. A newly arrived African immigrant in London or New York is apt to go to an inner city ER and wait for hours if he is not in cardiac arrest. Chances of him running into an A team that is one hundred percent up to speed on ebola are pretty low.
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nexus
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Post by nexus »

From Natural News:
Based on its current rate of spread, the West African Ebola outbreak is expected to surge in the coming weeks, according to a new study published in the journal PLOS Currents: Outbreaks. Researchers from Northeastern University in Boston have projected that as many as 10,000 cases of Ebola will be confirmed by September 24, with about 5,000 of these resulting in death.

Using the Global Epidemic and Mobility Model as a benchmark, Marcelo F. C. Gomes and his colleagues estimated the likelihood of disease spread with 3,362 subpopulations in 220 countries. This included looking at daily airline passenger traffic worldwide as well as disease spread within hospitals, at funerals and within entire communities.

With a reproductive number (Re) of 1 representing the tipping point at which disease spreads -- anything higher than 1 means that the outbreak will continue to spread, while anything less means that it is being contained -- the team estimates the current Ebola outbreak to be between 1.5 and 2.0. In the short term, this means continued and increasing spread throughout West Africa.

In the long term, international spread is also a possibility, with the strong likelihood of exponential growth if the situation is not contained sooner rather than later. As far as Liberia is concerned, where a bulk of the current outbreak is occurring, the figures don't look very promising -- the number of dead over the past several months could more than double in just a few weeks.

"The numbers are really scary," stated Alessandro Vespignani, a physicist at Northeastern and author of the study. "We all hope to see this NOT happening."

Hundreds of thousands could catch Ebola by December 1
Even with bolstered international aid, Vespignani and his team say this is not enough to prevent an exponential spike in Ebola infections. If things continue as they currently are, more than 100,000 people -- just in Liberia -- will have Ebola by December 1. And beyond that date, the number will continue to skyrocket at an exponential rate.

"If the epidemic in Liberia were to continue in this way until the 1st of December, the cumulative number of cases would exceed 100,000," said Christian Althaus, a mathematical epidemiologist from the University of Bern who is also building his own Ebola models, as quoted by Science magazine.

Up to 75 percent of actual Ebola cases go unreported, say expert

Because of a lack of data and difficulties knowing exactly how many people are currently infected with Ebola, scientists admit that their data are mostly speculative. But it is conservatively speculative, if anything, as up to three-quarters of actual Ebola cases likely go unreported. This means that many more people than are currently being reported already have Ebola, and the actual number on September 24 will be far higher.

Then there is the question of how quarantines are affecting the spread of Ebola. With some fearing the repercussions of coming forward, many infected individuals are likely staying out of the limelight, potentially spreading the disease to their friends, families and communities with authorities none the wiser.

"Quarantines and curfews tend to instill fear and distrust towards the whole of the outbreak response including health structures," stated a representative from Doctors Without Borders, one of the primary aid groups on the ground in West Africa, to Science.

To review the new study in its entirety, including plotted graphs of the expected rise in infections, visit:
Currents.PLOS.org.

Learn more: http://www.naturalnews.com/046882_Ebola ... z3DSzCZcWc
Research Paper cited: http://currents.plos.org/outbreaks/arti ... -outbreak/
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adam2
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Post by adam2 »

"Installers and owners of emergency diesels must assume that they will have to run for a week or more"
Little John
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Post by Little John »

The BBC appears to have pulled it
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Mean Mr Mustard
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Post by Mean Mr Mustard »

stevecook172001 wrote:The BBC appears to have pulled it
no, just double entered. Yertiz.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-29231400
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UndercoverElephant
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Post by UndercoverElephant »

Mean Mr Mustard wrote:
stevecook172001 wrote:The BBC appears to have pulled it
no, just double entered. Yertiz.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-29231400
So, in the last two days:

There has been an estimate that 20,000 could be infected by the end of September, and 100,000 by December 1st and 277,000 by the end of the year, while the WHO stands by its 20,000 by the end of the year estimate.

Obama has sent in 3000 troops and requested a "truly global response", having declared the situation to be "spiraling out of control".

This is pointless posturing. How are 3000 soldiers going to prevent the spread of ebola?

According to this article they can't, but...

http://www.businessweek.com/articles/20 ... tervention
As the U.N. General Assembly meets on Tuesday, we must come to terms with the fact that a highly coordinated military intervention is absolutely necessary and inevitable. The U.S. and its allies must be obliged to muster a ready force of 15,000 within 30 days, with almost as many health-care personnel to deal with patients and medical screening. Even prior to this, a secured air-bridge system must be initiated while commercial air travel continues to shut down. An air-bridge will be essential to continue uninterrupted transport of health-care workers, medical supplies, and food.
So now we need 15,000 soldiers, and 15,000 "health care personnel." Where are they going to get 15,000 "health care personnel" from? Who is going to pay them? Who is going to do their jobs while they're off in West Africa, risking catching ebola while failing to stop it spreading?

Still, I like the panic.

And I love this bit:
Should Bill Gates Write a Big Check to Stop Ebola?
The Black Death didn't spare the clergy. Ebola may spare the rich (us)...and it may not.

Gaia is fighting back. Has her immune system finally found an antibody to deal with the disease that is Homo sapiens? :)
fifthcolumn
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With 6000 people a day arriving from west africa

Post by fifthcolumn »

6000 people a day arrive from west africa.
Current rates of infection are about 0.1% of the population or 1 in 1000.
If the flights were coming directly from the hot zone instead of the neighbouring countries of the hot zone then there would likely be somewhere in the region of 6 cases out there every day.

Now, given that the index case in Nigeria was someone who was infected who fled to try to get treatment that speaks of how people will behave when they know they are infected and they face the choice of dying at home because they won't be treated due to lack of beds or try to get somewhere with better medical care. What do you think they will do?

So my guess is there's a non-zero (and growing) risk that there is already a case or two incubating somewhere in London, Madrid, Frankfurt or Amsterdam and maybe over this side of the pond too.

How fast can the vaccines and/or experimental drugs be scaled up? Can they be scaled up to hundreds of millions of doses and then distributed while the epidemic is doubling in size every two weeks?

Sobering times.
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UndercoverElephant
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Re: With 6000 people a day arriving from west africa

Post by UndercoverElephant »

fifthcolumn wrote:
So my guess is there's a non-zero (and growing) risk that there is already a case or two incubating somewhere in London, Madrid, Frankfurt or Amsterdam and maybe over this side of the pond too.
I'm not sure it matters where outside of the three main infected countries it is.

Clearly there is a non-zero and growing risk that somebody outside of those countries is infected and incubating the disease.

I think that's the next crucial question:

It is now quite obvious that nothing can be done to contain ebola within Liberia, Guinea and Sierra Leone - it is going to rage through their populations like the Black Death raged through Europe. But it is not yet clear how leaky the borders will be. Even as the situation spirals out of control in "the hot zone", we have no hard evidence of cases anywhere else, apart from what is happening in Nigeria. But if it turns out that in addition to not being able to stop the numbers increasing, we also can't stop the geographical spread, then we're looking at a global pandemic with the capacity to kill hundreds of millions of people.

And I guess we will find out the answer in the next few weeks. It is still possible that a serious attempt to seal those borders will prevent the infection spreading elsewhere, but if I had to bet on it then I think I'd bet against that.
How fast can the vaccines and/or experimental drugs be scaled up? Can they be scaled up to hundreds of millions of doses and then distributed while the epidemic is doubling in size every two weeks?
That is also unknown territory. Nothing of the sort has ever been tried before.
Sobering times.
30 years ago, when I was 15, what I wanted to be was a genetic engineer, so I could create a virus that would take out a significant proportion of the human race.
fifthcolumn
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Re: With 6000 people a day arriving from west africa

Post by fifthcolumn »

UndercoverElephant wrote:We have no hard evidence of cases anywhere else, apart from what is happening in Nigeria.
Ghana has two. Senegal has one. Uganda has one. Kenya maybe has one.
Republic of Congo have a cluster (though it's a different strain).

It could still turn out that the fragility of the healthcare system combined with poverty combined with burial practises and just the general level of lack of knowledge is a contributing factor. From what I've read, the average death rate is about 50% if untreated and that drops to about 25% just by providing sufficient hydration and keeping the patient well fed.

Some of the other countries in Africa aren't in such desperate straits as the likes of liberia or sierra leone or guinea so we'll wait to see how it plays out.

30 years ago, when I was 15, what I wanted to be was a genetic engineer, so I could create a virus that would take out a significant proportion of the human race.
Jesus you're a scary bastard E. Well on the other hand, I think it was Prince Charles said something similar.
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Post by Catweazle »

I think that border controls will be difficult, if enough people start to move then the border guards will simply flee ahead of them. If we could vaccinate the border guards and population around the borders we'd have a chance.
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Post by PS_RalphW »

I think there must now be a finite probability now of a fast crash event. Ebola breaking out of Africa into Asia on a significant scale will cause panic, shut down international travel, and possibly international trade. This will make our just in time delivery model difficult, and we could see cascade collapse of infrastructure, and , well who knows?

I think we need to be making low key preps if we haven't done them already.

Fast being weeks or months
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adam2
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Post by adam2 »

PS_RalphW wrote:I think there must now be a finite probability now of a fast crash event. Ebola breaking out of Africa into Asia on a significant scale will cause panic, shut down international travel, and possibly international trade. This will make our just in time delivery model difficult, and we could see cascade collapse of infrastructure, and , well who knows?

I think we need to be making low key preps if we haven't done them already.

Fast being weeks or months
Agree entirely.
In fact I find it very surprising that the population at large seem so un concerned about this. I would expect panic buying of food, water, fuel, disinfecting materials, gloves etc. No such seems apparent.
"Installers and owners of emergency diesels must assume that they will have to run for a week or more"
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Mean Mr Mustard
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Post by Mean Mr Mustard »

adam2 wrote: In fact I find it very surprising that the population at large seem so un concerned about this. I would expect panic buying of food, water, fuel, disinfecting materials, gloves etc. No such seems apparent.
Disease ridden dirt poor far away countries, affecting people of whom we know nothing...? It's obviously not here yet, otherwise the BBC would have reported it, eh...

:roll:
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Post by snow hope »

Can anybody tell me when this virus is contagious in the 2-21 day period of infection to presentation? sorry if this is a stupid question.
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