Gas alert as demand and prices rise

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adam2
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Post by adam2 »

Natural gas stocks are rather low at about 14,000 Gwh, most unlikely to be an issue at this time of year unless some very exceptional event occurs.

I find it surprising though that the storage is not being refilled at the maximum flow rate. The wholesale price is much reduced to about 1.4 pence a Kwh.
Seems very odd not to fill whilst prices are low by the standards of recent years.
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adam2
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Post by adam2 »

Our now much reduced natural gas storage is now reasonably well filled for the approaching winter.
Wholesale prices are lower than in some recent years, suggesting no near term shortage.

Before any undue optimism breaks out, we should remember that our limited natural gas stocks would only last a few weeks if some exceptional event prevented imports.
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Post by stumuz1 »

Thanks as always, Adam.
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Post by ReserveGrowthRulz »

adam2 wrote:Our now much reduced natural gas storage is now reasonably well filled for the approaching winter.
Wholesale prices are lower than in some recent years, suggesting no near term shortage.

Before any undue optimism breaks out, we should remember that our limited natural gas stocks would only last a few weeks if some exceptional event prevented imports.
And it isn't as though your PM can't pick up the phone and take advantage of his friendship with the leader of the world's largest natural gas producer. We've got natural gas to spare and then some.

Assuming that the UK continues to choose to not increase domestic supplies itself of course.
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adam2
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Post by adam2 »

Whilst times are normal, the UK can obtain natural gas from numerous suppliers, most of then rather nearer than the USA.

My concern is that some extreme event such as a renewal of hostilities in the Middle East, or in Russia/Ukraine would drastically reduce total supplies.

It would then matter very little whom normally supplies how much gas to whom. There would be a significant reduction in total world supplies, and the UK with very limited storage to draw upon in such circumstances would have to outbid everyone else.
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Post by cubes »

ReserveGrowthRulz wrote:And it isn't as though your PM can't pick up the phone and take advantage of his friendship with the leader of the world's largest natural gas producer. We've got natural gas to spare and then some.

Assuming that the UK continues to choose to not increase domestic supplies itself of course.
How much extra would that "friend" charge the desparate UK though? Free markets and all that!
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Post by ReserveGrowthRulz »

cubes wrote:
ReserveGrowthRulz wrote:And it isn't as though your PM can't pick up the phone and take advantage of his friendship with the leader of the world's largest natural gas producer. We've got natural gas to spare and then some.

Assuming that the UK continues to choose to not increase domestic supplies itself of course.
How much extra would that "friend" charge the desparate UK though? Free markets and all that!
Free markets indeed! The US attitude is all about market economics, so you could buy it at whatever price the market would bear.

Is there a price at which the Brits would be convinced to develop their own natural gas resources rather than buy it from others?
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adam2
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Post by adam2 »

With winter about two thirds over, our now very limited natural gas storage remains reasonably well filled.
Wholesale prices are lower than in recent years, which suggests that the market considers shortages unlikely.

Due to limited storage capacity, we remain vulnerable to any exceptional event that restricts imports. In the absence of any such event, the remainder of this winter looks fine.
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Post by stumuz1 »

Thanks Adam.
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Post by kenneal - lagger »

We have a limited gas supply, four 47kg bottles of propane, but as a bottle lasts us at least 6 months we are not too worried by shortages. We can always cook on the wood burning cooker but we would have to take more hot baths in the summer as it also heats the water? We could always divert some hot water to the grand kids mini swimming pool or get the home made hot tub working properly, I suppose.
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adam2
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Post by adam2 »

Natural gas stocks have now declined significantly.
Unlikely to be a problem at this time of year, only about 2 weeks of winter are left, and generally mild temperatures are expected for the near future.

I do wonder though why the storage is not being kept nearly full ? The price is lower than in recent years, suggesting that ample supplies are available.
It seems very odd not to take advantage of the low price by refilling storage.
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Post by vtsnowedin »

adam2 wrote:Natural gas stocks have now declined significantly.
Unlikely to be a problem at this time of year, only about 2 weeks of winter are left, and generally mild temperatures are expected for the near future.

I do wonder though why the storage is not being kept nearly full ? The price is lower than in recent years, suggesting that ample supplies are available.
It seems very odd not to take advantage of the low price by refilling storage.
Perhaps they are now comfortable enough with LNG deliveries that they consider a tanker in transit as good as storage and don't want to go to the bother and expense of putting it into and then back out of storage. Hope they are not over confident in that.
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Post by adam2 »

Stocks are now down to about 9,500 Gwh, a very low figure.
Probably OK with winter almost over, but it seems very odd not to keep storage well filled.
The low price suggests no shortage of supply with which the storage could be filled.
"Installers and owners of emergency diesels must assume that they will have to run for a week or more"
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