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Gordon Brown will today warn international leaders that sharp and unpredictable rises in oil prices risk "choking off" the global economy and pushing the world into a second recession.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstop ... ssion.html

Looking for an excuse already for the coming next leg down...nothing to do with them taking on too much debt and not being able to take on much more and therefore having to let reality arrive.

Very good point!

When do you think the next leg down will be?

How's Aus?

Brown's right. If/when the economy picks up and tries to use anything like the amount of oil we used last summer the price will rocket.

Looks like the market is listening: oil's at $60.58 as I type. They are anticipating the downturn with a lowering of the oil price.

Brown's in cloud cuckoo land. How is anyone going to stop the oil price sky rocketing when demand exceeds supply? Are they going to agree on world wide rationing? OPEC won't take too kindly to the oil price being below the $100 dollars they think it's worth.

It shows how out of touch they are when Mexico is one of the ""the plus five" group of emerging economies" just as their economy is bombing because of their own Peak Oil.

This bit amused me

British officials played down suggestions of "barracks" accommodation, saying they were satisfied that the college and other summit buildings had been brought to a suitable standard for the gathering.

Perhaps they ought to be reminded of how the other half lives. Pompous B*****rds!!

clv101 wrote:Brown's right. If/when the economy picks up and tries to use anything like the amount of oil we used last summer the price will rocket.

Do you really think the economy's anything like near to picking up where it was? I don't, the places that make things (Japan, Germany etc) have slumped 10, 20%...that's a lot of activity not happening. Just look at shipping...

The next leg is coming due to the credit taps being switched off, not the oil taps imho.

I'm not saying we don't have an oil problem to follow but right now we're a few years from it being THE problem.

Brown knows what's coming, he's looking for something external to blame so he can say it wasn't his fault, it was those traders and towel heads that did it. How could anyone see it all coming?

snow hope wrote:Very good point!

When do you think the next leg down will be?

How's Aus?

Hi Snow...good over here thanks. Middle of winter, been in shorts most of the time

Will ping you an email.

As for timing of next leg down, err, I've been pontificating long enough now to know not to try to get too accurate on this stuff. Soon I reckon, we might make it to the next election, who knows. It's coming though...

I agree entirely. In a year and a half all those dodgy assets that the goverment insured, and money given to the banks are due. That will either push huge losses onto the goverment balance sheets or push banks into the red again..... either way, all that rescue money and insurance can't just be forgotten. Lots of it Brown & Darling still assume will be paid back.

As far as any recovery goes, it will probably be simply inflationary. i.e. GDP goes up, due to inflation, not due to an increase in the 'real economy'. We may even see GDP increasing even as the unemployment figures are still dropping.

Unemployment figures and house prices are the numbers to keep your eyes on if you ask me. Ignore GDP and inflation. They're just made up works of fiction, the plot of which can be written and amended ad infinitum by the BoE, gov etc. Focus on the real stuff. Houses and Jobs.

oilslick wrote: Do you really think the economy's anything like near to picking up where it was? I don't, the places that make things (Japan, Germany etc) have slumped 10, 20%...that's a lot of activity not happening. Just look at shipping...

The next leg is coming due to the credit taps being switched off, not the oil taps imho.

And the reason the credit taps are being switched off is that the oil taps are being switched off. No increase in oil = no economic growth possible = no credit.

Ludwig wrote:And the reason the credit taps are being switched off is that the oil taps are being switched off. No increase in oil = no economic growth possible = no credit.

That's not quite true. The pressure is dropping in the taps and no work is being done to provide the resources to keep the pressure up. There's loads of oil at the moment as demand is low but if that demand were to increase after a period there could be shortages of supply.

Ludwig wrote:

oilslick wrote: Do you really think the economy's anything like near to picking up where it was? I don't, the places that make things (Japan, Germany etc) have slumped 10, 20%...that's a lot of activity not happening. Just look at shipping...

The next leg is coming due to the credit taps being switched off, not the oil taps imho.

And the reason the credit taps are being switched off is that the oil taps are being switched off. No increase in oil = no economic growth possible = no credit.

ZZzzz...and it was raining today because of peak oil. A man tripped over due to the pavement not being fixed...due to peak oil. And so on..

Credit taps were turned off because they couldn't be opened any further.

clv101 wrote:Brown's right. If/when the economy picks up and tries to use anything like the amount of oil we used last summer the price will rocket.

That's absolutely right, I've heard this phenomenon is called 'Peak Oil' (just pulling your leg clv101 )