Ebola outbreak, and other potential epidemics

[fuzzy]

Exactly - if their models said it would grow exponentially, then their maths sucks. In any fixed area it will be a 'logistic curve' as the infection rate drops due to the weaker dying off, immunity, resistance, medicine and changed habits, being factors. Obviously it needs new slums if it is going to keep growing.

[biffvernon]

Yes, but almost nobody knows what 'logistic curve' means and anyway the first part of a logistic curve looks very similar to exponential. We're still way down near the bottom start of the curve, whatever.

[snow hope]

Hopefully it will be more like a normal distribution curve.

It starts slowly, then has exponential growth, then growth slows down until zero growth, then decline starts slowly and then increases exponentially until it slows down and eventually stops.

Starts at zero and then returns to zero (eventually).

The normal distribution curve applies to an amazing amount of things in life....

[biffvernon]

then returns to zero (eventually)

There's some serious doubt about that. It could remain endemic, with sporadic outbreaks returning forever. There's not much known about the reservoir in wild animals. It seems that ~5% of bats may be infected but it's not certain whether this is the ultimate reservoir or whether the bats catch it from some other creature. The gorilla population has been utterly decimated in some areas.

[Little John]

then returns to zero (eventually)

There's some serious doubt about that. It could remain endemic, with sporadic outbreaks returning forever. There's not much known about the reservoir in wild animals. It seems that ~5% of bats may be infected but it's not certain whether this is the ultimate reservoir or whether the bats catch it from some other creature. The gorilla population has been utterly decimated in some areas.

So long as humans do not move in to take over the ecological niche of the gorillas that have died, those that remain should relatively quickly refill it so long as their numbers and consequent genetic diversity is not perilously low.....

......which it may be.

[PS_RalphW]

It is worrying in the light of the uncertain rate of spread in Sierra Leone


http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/n ... t-response

There does seem to be a lot of confusion over numbers. A lot of malaria or other similar deaths are being misdiagnosed, but there is good reason to suspect a lot of ebola cases are not reported, because patients are treated in total isolation and mostly die anyway, and families fear that victims are worse treated in hospitals than in their own homes.

Now that the outbreak is showing some signs of moderating in some areas, I am sure local corrupt government will try to brush it under the carpet and down play it whilst pocketing the aid.

[biffvernon]

A useful contribution from a doctor in the field.

Knowledge is power,

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfre ... est-africa

[nexus]

Patient being tested for ebola is in isolation in Belfast:

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/n ... ient-tests

[snow hope]

Patient in Belfast confirmed as NOT having Ebola. Phew! (But she is confirmed as having Malaria.)

The spread continues to be controlled thank goodness. Lets hope it stays that way.

[PS_RalphW]

Two more deaths in Mali - a nurse who treated the index case, and a subsequent patient of the nurse.

Lets hope they can put a lid on this one.

The numbers in Sierra Leone are still exponential. No indication that that medicine is getting it under control, or that people's behaviour has changed to reduce transmission.

The leveling off of numbers in other countries is being put down to modified behaviour and not medical control. Let's hope that Sierra Leonian people learn as quickly.

[PS_RalphW]

Mali now has 5 confirmed cases, and more suspected.

This does not look good.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-11-1 ... ebola.html

edit

This is a new outbreak, similar to the one in Nigeria. It is in the Malian
capital at a private hospital

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/13/healt ... .html?_r=0

Bamako has 1.8M people and 2 hospitals. Health care is overstretched at the best of times, It was recently described as the fastest growing city in Africa, having grown from 0.18M in 1960.

A new hospital is being built by the Chinese.

I hope MSF move in and bring this under control quickly.

[Mean Mr Mustard]

Tony Blair seeks favourable PR...

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfre ... ion-centre

[biffvernon]

Bamako has 1.8M people and 2 hospitals.

A moment to pause for reflection on the inequality across the globe.

... And what to do about it.

[jonny2mad]

biff you have a house thats unfair to all the people in the uk and worldwide without houses please sell your house and give the money to the poor

you also have shoes and most likely fine socks others dont have socks, sell your shoes and socks and give that money to the now sockless

I could go on but your rich and those sockless folks without a hospital need your help go help them ...

[snow hope]

Mali now has 5 confirmed cases, and more suspected.

This does not look good.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-11-1 ... ebola.html

edit

This is a new outbreak, similar to the one in Nigeria. It is in the Malian
capital at a private hospital

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/13/healt ... .html?_r=0

Bamako has 1.8M people and 2 hospitals. Health care is overstretched at the best of times, It was recently described as the fastest growing city in Africa, having grown from 0.18M in 1960.

A new hospital is being built by the Chinese.

I hope MSF move in and bring this under control quickly.

That second link indicates it may be out of control already.