the frack thread

How will oil depletion affect the way we live? What will the economic impact be? How will agriculture change? Will we thrive or merely survive?

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kenneal - lagger
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Post by kenneal - lagger »

Net energy won't necessarily affect the price of oil or its usage but it will have an effect on how much work can be undertaken in the rest of the economy because it will effect the amount of energy there is available to do work other than extract energy.
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ReserveGrowthRulz
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Post by ReserveGrowthRulz »

kenneal - lagger wrote:Net energy won't necessarily affect the price of oil or its usage but it will have an effect on how much work can be undertaken in the rest of the economy because it will effect the amount of energy there is available to do work other than extract energy.
Well, net energy has been declining for like half a century or more now, according to those who show graphs on such things.
Last edited by ReserveGrowthRulz on Wed Jun 17, 2020 3:47 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Post by Little John »

Net energy has indeed been declining for getting on for fifty years. And our economic systems have compensated for this in a variety of ways

1) Firstly, by improvements in production techniques. But, this has its limits and has been superseded by:

2) Rejigging the political and economic system in order to draw a greater share of diminishing profits to the upper echelons leading to:

3) an increasing proportion of ordinary citizen having to use debt as a secondary income stream to supplement their diminishing share of the profits of the economic system leading to:

4) a partial collapse of the economic system due to unserviceable personal debt leading to:

5) the transformation of personal debt into state debt in the form of reduced public services. In other words, "austerity" across most of the world for anyone not in the top few percent of the economic system. Not to mention a growing number of proxy military conflicts arising in the remaining relatively oil rich parts of the world as the major players fight over the remaining scraps. All of which are steadily transforming into direct conflicts. All of which is finally leading to:

6) Growing internal political rebellions across much of the world.

Oh yes, bring it on
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Post by ReserveGrowthRulz »

Little John wrote:Net energy has indeed been declining for getting on for fifty years. And our economic systems have compensated for this in a variety of ways

1) Firstly, by improvements in production techniques. But, this has its limits and has been superseded by:

2) Rejigging the political and economic system in order to draw a greater share of diminishing profits to the upper echelons leading to:

3) an increasing proportion of ordinary citizen having to use debt as a secondary income stream to supplement their diminishing share of the profits of the economic system leading to:

4) a partial collapse of the economic system due to unserviceable personal debt leading to:

5) the transformation of personal debt into state debt in the form of reduced public services. In other words, "austerity" across most of the world for anyone not in the top few percent of the economic system. Not to mention a growing number of proxy military conflicts arising in the remaining relatively oil rich parts of the world as the major players fight over the remaining scraps. All of which are steadily transforming into direct conflicts. All of which is finally leading to:

6) Growing internal political rebellions across much of the world.

Oh yes, bring it on
Bring what on? You agreed with me. Want to fess up as to whom you plagiarized the above thoughts from?
Last edited by ReserveGrowthRulz on Wed Jun 17, 2020 3:48 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Post by Little John »

ReserveGrowthRulz wrote:
Little John wrote:Net energy has indeed been declining for getting on for fifty years. And our economic systems have compensated for this in a variety of ways

1) Firstly, by improvements in production techniques. But, this has its limits and has been superseded by:

2) Rejigging the political and economic system in order to draw a greater share of diminishing profits to the upper echelons leading to:

3) an increasing proportion of ordinary citizen having to use debt as a secondary income stream to supplement their diminishing share of the profits of the economic system leading to:

4) a partial collapse of the economic system due to unserviceable personal debt leading to:

5) the transformation of personal debt into state debt in the form of reduced public services. In other words, "austerity" across most of the world for anyone not in the top few percent of the economic system. Not to mention a growing number of proxy military conflicts arising in the remaining relatively oil rich parts of the world as the major players fight over the remaining scraps. All of which are steadily transforming into direct conflicts. All of which is finally leading to:

6) Growing internal political rebellions across much of the world.

Oh yes, bring it on
Bring what on? You agreed with me.

Net energy has been going down, down, down and you, and I, and everyone on this board and people around the world have gained higher standards of living, neato communication toys, higher wages, access to capital the likes of which never could happen in my youth for someone wanting to start a business, globalization in manufacturing and knock on gains because of increased efficiencies, and so on and so forth.

I just find it amusing that net energy folks are calling for an inflection point of some sort, and continue to wait for it to be visible.
The majority of ordinary citizens in the majority of industrialized countries in the world have not seen their conditions improve in essential terms. The specific picture on the ground has been merely muddied, for a while at least, by the substitution of real income for debt. But, even that little game has now drawn to a close for many people. Or, rather, to the extent they are still using debt as an alternative income stream, this is now being used to pay for the essentials just to keep head above water.

Do I really need to pull up the numbers showing declines in real wages and concomitant increases in debt?

Or would that be pointless given your response would almost certainly be more obfuscatory bullshit?
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Post by ReserveGrowthRulz »

Little John wrote:The majority of ordinary citizens in the majority of industrialized countries in the world have not seen their conditions improve in essential terms.
I suppose we would need to agree on what essential terms are to discuss this.
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Post by adam2 »

"government pulls support for fracking"

Not quite the same as an actual ban, but an absence of government support might well end up as a de facto ban.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50267454
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Post by vtsnowedin »

That is OK for now with world supplies more then adequate. But when supplies eventually decline,as we all know they will ,the pressure to resume fracking will overcome any opposition. The one bright spot in this for the UK is that they will save their supplies that can be fracked for that time when supplies are declining and prices are high. No sense selling it today for $55 when you can sell the same gas and oil for $200 in the future. Also the technology of both recovery rates and safety will advance in the interim so the problems and dangers of extraction will most likely be decreased.
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Post by ReserveGrowthRulz »

adam2 wrote:"government pulls support for fracking"

Not quite the same as an actual ban, but an absence of government support might well end up as a de facto ban.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50267454
well,

Ban away!
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Post by ReserveGrowthRulz »

While peak oil demand appears to be a very real threat on the horizon, natural gas does not currently show the same inclination.
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Post by vtsnowedin »

ReserveGrowthRulz wrote:
Ah yes, all of this is so true. But the real nut to crack is what is the price required to secure those "leave it in the ground!!!!....until we need it!!!" resources?

While peak oil demand appears to be a very real threat on the horizon, natural gas does not currently show the same inclination.
While gas supplies seem ample at present one would expect the decline in oil supplies to immediately put pressure on gas as a substitute and prices will rise to whatever it takes to suppress demand down to the total supply of both in BOE [barrel of oil equivalent].
Worldwide discoveries of new oil are dropping off even when they include gas in BOE figures. One estimate has them only finding one new barrel for every six we are burning through.
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Post by eatyourveg »

https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... jor-u-turn

It's all over for the moment.

Oops noticed already posted.
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Post by ReserveGrowthRulz »

Things ALWAYS seem ample at present...in the present.
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Post by vtsnowedin »

ReserveGrowthRulz wrote: Worldwide discoveries of crude oil don't even include the "discoveries" that created Saudi America...a tricky dick, that one.
The "discoveries" that created the so called Saudi America were just improved technologies that improved the recovery rate from long ago discovered existing fields. They did not create of find any new oil or gas as that number was fixed back before we came out of the trees and started walking upright.
Reserves are a number that changes with the price of oil which is effected by the demand for it. Actual supplies existing in the ground on the other hand is a fixed if unknown number which we will someday (perhaps sooner then later)come to understand after we have wasted most of it just building fires to boil water and move ice engine cars around with one passenger each.
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Post by ReserveGrowthRulz »

vtsnowedin wrote:
ReserveGrowthRulz wrote: Worldwide discoveries of crude oil don't even include the "discoveries" that created Saudi America...a tricky dick, that one.
The "discoveries" that created the so called Saudi America were just improved technologies that improved the recovery rate from long ago discovered existing fields.
When the US outproduces Saudi Arabia, it isn't "so called" anymore.
Last edited by ReserveGrowthRulz on Wed Jun 17, 2020 3:52 am, edited 1 time in total.
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