2017 predictions

Forum for general discussion of Peak Oil / Oil depletion; also covering related subjects

Moderator: Peak Moderation

User avatar
Lord Beria3
Posts: 5064
Joined: Wed Feb 25, 2009 8:57 pm
Location: Moscow Russia
Contact:

2017 predictions

Post by Lord Beria3 »

Lets hear it from the collective wisdom of the PS forum!

Predictions for the year 2017...
Peace always has been and always will be an intermittent flash of light in a dark history of warfare, violence, and destruction
User avatar
adam2
Site Admin
Posts: 8294
Joined: Mon Jul 02, 2007 5:49 pm
Location: North Somerset

Post by adam2 »

I hereby repeat my usual prediction that next year will be rather like the present year, but a bit worse.

Some sudden crash or natural disaster is always possible but I consider a slow slide to be more likely.

Taxes up a bit
Public services a bit worse
Crime to increase a bit
Dissatisfaction with TPTB to worsen
The EU to crumble a bit but not yet totally collapse.

And so on.
"Installers and owners of emergency diesels must assume that they will have to run for a week or more"
User avatar
clv101
Site Admin
Posts: 8854
Joined: Thu Nov 24, 2005 11:09 am
Contact:

Post by clv101 »

adam2 wrote:I hereby repeat my usual prediction that next year will be rather like the present year, but a bit worse.

Some sudden crash or natural disaster is always possible but I consider a slow slide to be more likely.
I broadly agree with this, however I think 2017 has a higher chance of something dramatic than any recent previous year.

That said, could you expand on "sudden crash or natural disaster"? For example which was the pervious year when we did experience that? I'm assuming you'd include 1938... which other years have met your criteria? I'm asking about the false hypothesis of your prediction.
User avatar
adam2
Site Admin
Posts: 8294
Joined: Mon Jul 02, 2007 5:49 pm
Location: North Somerset

Post by adam2 »

I consider that that there is a small but real risk of some sudden dramtatic natural disaster, for example a huge flood significantly worse than in 1953, with loss of life and destruction of property on a huge scale.
Or a winter like that of 1947 or 1963, we are arguably less well equipped now than then.
Or a truly extreme heat wave and drought that kills thousands, destroys many crops, and closes down important industries for want of water or power.

Or we might face a sudden financial crash with cashpoints empty, and money in banks simply gone forever, consider the disorder and consequent loss of life.

Or terrorists or rogue states using a single nuclear weapon against us.

Or a nuclear war that is far enough away not to directly affect us, but consider the effects on food and fuel imports.

Or a pandemic with significant mortality and failure of utilities and public services for want of staff.

All the above are IMHO possibilities, as are many other sorts of doom.

Not that likely though, IMO, more likely to be a steady decline as has arguably already started.
"Installers and owners of emergency diesels must assume that they will have to run for a week or more"
fuzzy
Posts: 1388
Joined: Fri Nov 29, 2013 3:08 pm
Location: The Marches, UK

Post by fuzzy »

Or people [ie the Saudis/Chinese] stop buying UK gov debt, and the gov is effectively bankrupt.
User avatar
PS_RalphW
Posts: 5914
Joined: Thu Nov 24, 2005 11:09 am
Location: Cambridge

Post by PS_RalphW »

My younger daughter will go to school for at least one day. My wife will get fitter and a little healthier walking our new puppy Whippets (who are unbearably cute). My new job will continue in spite of it being a money loser for my boss because he believes in making renewable energy as easy and accessible as possible. Hopefully I will not have another family funeral to attend. My older daughter will attend therapy for many many sessions and will begin to realise that the world is not really as scary and dangerous as her brain constantly tells her it is.

(In fact it is, but she is not ready to know that).

I am certain that a lot of bad and scary things will happen in the world, and some small echo of them will reach our sheltered little corner, but I have to focus on my family, because it is only now I have realised just how damaged and frightened my girls have been. I have collected as large and eco friendly a buffer as I can,
and I know it can't last for ever, but for now I must filter it out for my family's and my own mental health.
User avatar
emordnilap
Posts: 14636
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2007 4:36 pm
Location: here

Post by emordnilap »

I can't make predictions, I can only have hopes while, like Ralph, I can try to create a little more resilience in my life.

We can predict (because it's happening) more automation and so a greater pressure downwards on wages for remaining jobs. And more financialisation: India is having a huge push to get people off cash and into using banks.
I experience pleasure and pains, and pursue goals in service of them, so I cannot reasonably deny the right of other sentient agents to do the same - Steven Pinker
User avatar
UndercoverElephant
Posts: 11272
Joined: Mon Mar 10, 2008 12:00 am
Location: south east England

Post by UndercoverElephant »

clv101 wrote:
adam2 wrote:I hereby repeat my usual prediction that next year will be rather like the present year, but a bit worse.

Some sudden crash or natural disaster is always possible but I consider a slow slide to be more likely.
I broadly agree with this, however I think 2017 has a higher chance of something dramatic than any recent previous year.

That said, could you expand on "sudden crash or natural disaster"? For example which was the pervious year when we did experience that? I'm assuming you'd include 1938... which other years have met your criteria? I'm asking about the false hypothesis of your prediction.
The 2004 boxing day tsunami was a bit special. It was caused by the deadliest earthquake in recorded history, and the third most powerful. Only Chile 1960 is comparable.
User avatar
UndercoverElephant
Posts: 11272
Joined: Mon Mar 10, 2008 12:00 am
Location: south east England

Post by UndercoverElephant »

re: 2017 predictions

Maybe the most important one is that people are going to start realising that 2016 wasn't an outlier but part of an emerging pattern. 2017 will be like 2016 but probably a bit worse: more political, economic and social unrest, more weather "anomolies", more famous people dying. Currently I know a lot of people moaning about how awful 2016 is, but with an implied belief that it is a blip. I think when 2017 turns out to be more of the same then maybe they'll start asking themselves whether it is indeed a sign of what is coming, and if so, why.
User avatar
emordnilap
Posts: 14636
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2007 4:36 pm
Location: here

Post by emordnilap »

UndercoverElephant wrote:re: 2017 predictions

Maybe the most important one is that people are going to start realising that 2016 wasn't an outlier but part of an emerging pattern. 2017 will be like 2016 but probably a bit worse: more political, economic and social unrest, more weather "anomolies", more famous people dying. Currently I know a lot of people moaning about how awful 2016 is, but with an implied belief that it is a blip. I think when 2017 turns out to be more of the same then maybe they'll start asking themselves whether it is indeed a sign of what is coming, and if so, why.
This.
I experience pleasure and pains, and pursue goals in service of them, so I cannot reasonably deny the right of other sentient agents to do the same - Steven Pinker
User avatar
careful_eugene
Posts: 631
Joined: Mon Jun 26, 2006 3:39 pm
Location: Nottingham UK

Post by careful_eugene »

1, Significantly more people will begin to realise that a large amount of what they are told by MSM is either not quite true or completely false. I think this has been building for a while and next year will see a tipping point.
2, My daughter WILL finish reading The Book Thief even if I have to stand and hold her phone in one hand and a hammer in the other while she does it.
3, Terrorist attack in the UK, shopping centre type attack or something using drones bought from Maplins.
4, Setbacks in progress on dealing with climate change due to science deniers being in charge in the US.
5, Riots in the summer when it dawns that there are just as many foreign born people living in the UK as there were a year before (possibly linked to '3` above)
6, Fabulously wealthy people get even richer and have more TV programs made about them, more foodbanks open.

Obviously I hope I'm wrong about all of the above except for item 2.
Paid up member of the Petite bourgeoisie
boisdevie
Posts: 460
Joined: Wed Dec 26, 2012 6:48 pm
Location: N Lancashire

Post by boisdevie »

1. UK terrorist attack.
2. Euro banking crisis kicked off by either Greece, Italy or Spain.
3. I'll be working on my resilience.
vtsnowedin
Posts: 6596
Joined: Fri Jan 07, 2011 10:14 pm
Location: New England ,Chelsea Vermont

Post by vtsnowedin »

careful_eugene wrote:......
.....
2, My daughter WILL finish reading The Book Thief even if I have to stand and hold her phone in one hand and a hammer in the other while she does it.
.....

Obviously I hope I'm wrong about all of the above except for item 2.
I saw this suggestion yesterday that you might like.
Fill a couple of empty boxes with crumpled newspaper then wrap them to look like Christmas presents for you kids and place under the tree. When said child misbehaves pretend you have lost your temper and grab one and throw it into the fire or the trash if you have none. Get it on film if you can. :twisted:
vtsnowedin
Posts: 6596
Joined: Fri Jan 07, 2011 10:14 pm
Location: New England ,Chelsea Vermont

Post by vtsnowedin »

1. A normal number of natural disasters including droughts will happen. All of which will be heralded as "unprecedented by the MSM.

2. Angela Meerkal will be voted out of office.
3. The efforts to undo Brexit will continue.
4. The MSM in the USA will maintain a constant campaign to unseat D. Trump by calling his every action illegal and self serving.
5. I'll have an increasing number of funerals to attend.
6. I'll have a couple of weddings to attend.
7. The guardian of the checkbook and I will celebrate our 40'th anniversary.
kenneal - lagger
Site Admin
Posts: 12604
Joined: Wed Sep 20, 2006 2:35 am
Location: Newbury, Berkshire
Contact:

Post by kenneal - lagger »

Add to possible disasters, a volcanic eruption in the Canary Islands which sets off a mega tsunami in the Atlantic. With the amount of destruction on the west coast of the US that could trigger a financial meltdown there and hence worldwide and China and/or Russia might take the chance to "extend their influence" in various parts of the world while the US was otherwise engaged.

The same tsunami could give us our own "Fukushima" in the Seven Estuary with Hinckley and Oldbury(if it's still working) in the path of the wave. Dungeness could also be vulnerable to such a wave. In both the Seven Estuary and the Channel a tsunami wave from the Atlantic would get worse as it travels east because of the funnelling effect of both waterways and the decreasing depth. This would counter any loss of energy due to distance from source.

A lack of buyers of government debt might prompt the government to abandon the banking system for its finance and start printing it own money again. that could be a major plus point.

A more likely scenario, as others have suggested, is a gradual continuation of the downward spiral with many mini catastrophes in many places all adding to the sense of doom.
Action is the antidote to despair - Joan Baez
Post Reply