PowerSwitch

Here's a good place to start: http://www.peakoil.net/publications/pee ... d-articles

The law of exponential growth and exponential decay.

The relationship between thermodynamics and economy. Although not directly related to peak oil this need to be understood to realise the implications of an energy source that is not increasing

http://ecen.com/eee9/ecoterme.htm

I'd start by saying that 'peak oil' is a certainty (sometime) because oil is a finite resource. To demonstrate that we need to establish the origin of oil and refute the abiotic theory.

I presume you've read the UK Energy Research Council report? It stands head and shoulders above anything else as a comprehensive synthesis of the peak oil literature. It really is a fantastic resource:

http://www.ukerc.ac.uk/support/Global%20Oil%20Depletion

The juicy stuff is in the associated Technical Papers.

RGR wrote:...British peakers extraordinare... ...the peakers with the lowest percentage of crackpots I have bumped into online.

How condescending. But I think it was meant to be a sort of compliment.

Perhaps you could ask the folks at ASPO or ODAC if they have any tech papers? And you already have lots of knowledgable contacts over at the Oil Drum.

Sorry I've no science.

Just common sense.

emordnilap wrote:Sorry I've no science.

Just common sense.

That's could actually be a problem. Many of today's issues are complex, 'wicked' problems. Problems that the conventional modern reductionist approach hasn't solved and do not respond well to common sense. They are counter intuitive.

RGR wrote:

Aurora wrote:Here's a good place to start: http://www.peakoil.net/publications/pee ... d-articles

I am familiar with the references involved, but that is still a good list. I was looking for a specific piece of the science involved that peakers think is the strongest component of peak oil, certainly I am not about to refute all science on the topic because some of the science is solid. However, within those references are the basis of support for some of the dogma I have mentioned.

Would you include things such as EROEI?


Peter.

RGR - in all honesty the debate regarding PO has moved on from proving its theory (numerious studies have shown a peak is likely within the next ten years) - the real debate is regarding mitigation and how serious the decline will be.

At one end is the fast crash folks (Ludwig here) who argue that as soon as we head of that peak it will cause the entire financial system to crash once growth has died.

On the other hand are others (like the Deutcshe Bank folk) who argue that a peak oil oil doesn't necessarily mean the end of the world. If that is the case, than it brings in anather debate on what kind of responces to PO are proper and sensible.

Oil production will peak (or has, depending on how broadly you define oil) when the world can no longer afford the production cost of the incremental barrel of oil. It will not be clear cut, because of lags in the system, and the price that the global economy can afford is not uniform, some countries use oil very inefficiently per unit of (real) economic activity. Also, substitution at the margins will occur, as will increased efficiency, with a very long lag time as the cost rises.

Ultimately, human behaviour will change to use less oil because different measures of economic activity will be developed. (That statement assumes human behaviour is driven by economic theory, which it is to some extent in the consumer society).

However, big however: Oil is 30 -35% of the energy used by mankind. A peak in oil production is in practice a peak in energy production and a peak in economic activity because the rate of change in oil supply will be larger than the rate of change of alternative energy supplies and efficiency/behaviour adaptation.

To an extreme extent modern society is fossil fuel. We have built an extremely complex, high energy flow, low resilience global civilisation with an economic model which becomes unstable without exponential growth. The economic retrenchment required see us through the peak oil bottleneck is more than our system will tolerate. It must disintegrate.

The global food production/distribution network is part of that system, and it will be heavily disrupted. Parts of the world will see major starvation.

RGR wrote:it can be ... some irrefutable law of nature

Turkeys DO vote for Christmas.