Open Question to Powerswitchers From RGR. Input requested.

RGR · Post by **RGR** » 24 Oct 2010, 17:04

lurker wrote:I don't think there any chance onshore oil production in the USA will have a second peak

Does RGR think this is possible?

Lord Beria3 · Post by **Lord Beria3** » 24 Oct 2010, 17:09

There is a difference between resource depletion issues as an all encompassing multi discipline science topic and peak oil

Really stuggling to understand what you are trying to say here. I may be totally stupid, but I doubt it.

I think at the core is a total misunderstanding... you want a precise hard scientific approach to PO and as PO is by nature geological, economic and political subject its impossible to treat it like physics.

What I don't get is that there are alot of oil experts who accept PO and have made similar predictions as folks here.

http://www.treehugger.com/files/2008/01 ... ak_oil.php

In a rare moment of candor, Jeroen van der Veer, the chief executive of Royal Dutch Shell, acknowledged what many have long considered a forgone conclusion: the end of the oil era is almost upon us, and sooner than you might think. The Oil Drum retrieved an e-mail sent to all Shell employees in which the CEO admitted the obvious (emphasis ours):

"Regardless of which route we choose, the world's current predicament limits our maneuvering room. We are experiencing a step-change in the growth rate of energy demand due to population growth and economic development, and Shell estimates that after 2015 supplies of easy-to-access oil and gas will no longer keep up with demand."

Even you can accept that a Shell CEO is not a amateur!!!

http://www.heatingoil.com/blog/petrobra ... is-now205/

On Thursday, the energy blog TheOilDrum.com reported on a December 2009 presentation by Petrobras CEO Jose Sergio Gabrielli in which he estimated that world oil production would peak this year. Gabrielli, head of Brazil’s national oil company, joined the ranks of other international oil honchos, including former Aramco executive Sadad al-Husseini and Total’s CEO Christophe de Margerie, in stating that the level of global oil production cannot keep pace with growing demand. The logical result of this trend is oil scarcity that will lead to quickly rising crude prices in the next few years

Again, most folks here are not scientists, but reading stuff like the above and our own research have come to the conclusion that a peak in global oil production will come within a decade (if not already) and planning for a post-peak oil world is a issue worthy of debate.

RGR · Post by **RGR** » 24 Oct 2010, 18:18

Lord Beria3 wrote:
There is a difference between resource depletion issues as an all encompassing multi discipline science topic and peak oil

Lord Beria3 · Post by **Lord Beria3** » 24 Oct 2010, 19:07

Thanks for the reply.

Regarding 'The Prize' - I have read that book, a fantastic narrative of the history of oil. Yes, it is too true that there have been many false peaks, but my understanding is that this was due to the assumption that they had discovered the major fields, but when they explored a new bit of the world, they discovered more massive fields.

The reason why this time PO claims are on stronger ground is that very few big fields have come on stream the last couple of decades, despite massive investment and exploration by oil majors around the world.

The only new discoveries are 'extreme energy', e.g. in the arctic or deep-water, both of which are more expensive than cheap Iraqi/Saudi oil fields.

If you are such a expert on oil, you should know this already. Now, tar sands, deep-sea Brazilian oil fields and Arctic oil are accessible, but at high costs, meaning that future oil will be alot more expensive if these projects are going to be financially viable.

Logically, as the big fields go into decline (a geological certainity - although predicting such things is very hard) than the overall trend is towards shrinking supply and thus higher prices.

Within that, there are many other variables, demand, substitution, net exports, geopolitics and the investment/market climate.

Thats why any prediction is by nature going to be within the room of error. That doesn't mean that the overall consensus of a peak is wrong.

RGR · Post by **RGR** » 24 Oct 2010, 22:43

Silas · Post by **Silas** » 25 Oct 2010, 10:27

Perhaps RGR has a point, energy is out there and it's not impossible to carry on exploiting it, do we no for certain how much there is and whats going to happen, I dont Im not in the oil business or a geologist nor am I in government the peak oil theory is very convincing is it not? For me its more about sustainablity and efficientcy, I fail to see the logic of the throw away culture and have been drawn to search for signs of a C change. I seem to be drawn to browsing the powerswitch forum despite dropping out for a while ( I even requested to be wiped by the mods, who told me they didn't know how!). Perhaps Peak oil dose have a cultist or religious undertone. I certainly find the doomers annoying

For me though the whole argument that there is still loads of fossil fuel energy yet to be mined is in itself the worry, I know its the BAU world we live in and its probably inevitable that we will rape the earth for a few more decades of the current lifestyle, but isn't the addiction to the current lifestyle the problem, everybody on the planet wants to live the dream, we all want Utopia, we are behaving like a plague of locusts, is it sustainable without any consequences? do we not see our predicament?

RGR · Post by **RGR** » 25 Oct 2010, 23:43

Silas wrote:Perhaps RGR has a point, energy is out there and it's not impossible to carry on exploiting it, do we no for certain how much there is and whats going to happen,

Post by **clv101** » 26 Oct 2010, 09:47

RGR wrote:But my question was, does ANYONE have what they consider to be the best scientific basis for their particular version of "peak oil".

There are a few main internet blog forum places upon which what passes for "knowledge" on the topic. One is run by an unemployed lawyer who has spent many years hawking various wares to his disciples.

The information you asked for is back up on the first page. Matt Savinar has nothing to do with it. That you even bring LATOC up suggests to be you're not so much interested in the science but just poking fun at some folks on the Internet. The UKERC report is the bibliography you're looking for.

RGR · Post by **RGR** » 27 Oct 2010, 00:34

RGR · Post by **RGR** » 29 Oct 2010, 07:34

Prono 007 · Post by **Prono 007** » 30 Oct 2010, 14:22

YAWN.

Disappointed to see so many people feeding the obvious troll and wind up merchant.

RGR · Post by **RGR** » 30 Oct 2010, 15:07

AndySir · Post by **AndySir** » 31 Oct 2010, 22:42

Will attempt an honest answer to the question... I was under the impression that recent peaks in oil production were more significant than previous peaks because of the decline of discoveries since the 1960's. Assuming discoveries have indeed peaked this maxima is more likely to be a global maxima than the local peaks in 1912 or whatever it was.

Of course, lacking any significant knowledge of geology or experience in resource extraction the actual answer to why I believe that oil is at a global peak is that I've read reports from people like Campbell, Hirsch and even Yergin who know better than me and all seem to say the same thing (stripped of predictions and rhetoric). So I suppose my belief is based on faith, of a sort, in the consensus of people I believe to be knowledgeable in their field.

lurker · Post by **lurker** » 31 Oct 2010, 22:48

The vast majority of climate scientists believe in AGW. Thats the current scienctific consesus, from the current data

Do the vast majority of Petroleum Geologists believe in peak oil has occured?

Iv'e no idea but alot seem to?

RGR · Post by **RGR** » 31 Oct 2010, 23:51