New coronavirus in/from China

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PS_RalphW
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Re: New coronavirus in/from China

Post by PS_RalphW »

Cases are rising again in the UK and now the US. This is turning into very much a seasonal disease. There are no official numbers in the UK but anecdotally from reports of hospital staff the vast majority of the 8000 covid patients in hospital are unvaccinated or have serious comorbidities and or compromised immune system. Almost no healthy, unvaccinated under 70s are dying.

The media are really talking up the panic in western European countries again, although most of them still have much lower hospitalisation and death rates than the UK.

It is at times like these that I suspect the Media as being complicit in pushing an undeclared government campaign to soften us up for a lockdown new year. Even I can come up with conspiracy theories
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BritDownUnder
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Re: New coronavirus in/from China

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I actually thought case numbers in Western Europe (except the UK) were getting higher than the UK. I had no idea on the hospitalisation rates though. Looks like the UK cases have been quite high for a few months and the European numbers have caught up and now passed the UK.

Due to a lower vaccination rate than the UK in those countries?
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PS_RalphW
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Re: New coronavirus in/from China

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New variant found in Africa with 32 point mutations on the spike protein. Possibly as a result of a chronic infection in an AIDS suffer. High risk of it being resistant to the current vaccines, but unknown how transmissible this variant is. It has already spread to Hong Kong.
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adam2
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Re: New coronavirus in/from China

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"Concern about new covid variant in Africa" Reported to be more dangerous than the other variants. Travel restrictions to be imposed on several Southern African countries.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59424269
"Installers and owners of emergency diesels must assume that they will have to run for a week or more"
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PS_RalphW
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Re: New coronavirus in/from China

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For once the government is being proactive in trying to keep this variant out before we know how dangerous it is. But then, we have few economic or political ties to these countries. Noticeable that Hong Kong, the only country outside Africa to record cases, is not on the list.

Worst case scenario would be similar transmissibility to Delta and largely immune to current vaccines. That would put us back almost to square one, with the NHS already struggling. We would need full lockdown and massive deployment of anti-viral drugs, with a population that would be close to rebellious if Europe is anything to go by. We would need to repeat the vaccine development cycle, and would probably be tempted to take shortcuts on the trial stages.
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BritDownUnder
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Re: New coronavirus in/from China

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PS_RalphW wrote: Thu Nov 25, 2021 10:06 pmWe would need to repeat the vaccine development cycle, and would probably be tempted to take shortcuts on the trial stages.
Let's hope that the people developing the vaccines have not been sitting on their hands and doing nothing for the last year or so. Looks like there will be some kind of technological arms race with the virus for some time yet!
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anotherexlurker
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Re: New coronavirus in/from China

Post by anotherexlurker »

From memory the astrazeneca team were more concerned with the original south African variant than the delta variant and were working on adapting their vaccine to counter it , not sure how far they have got with that or whether it would be more or less effective against this new variant.
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PS_RalphW
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Re: New coronavirus in/from China

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New variant found in Belgium. With this variant, rapid travel bans is still not enough. It will be found to be in the UK some time in the next week. Bye bye Christmas. Markets down 3%. Oil down $5.

The young adult had mild symptoms, high viral load, and had travelled to Turkey and Egypt.
Last edited by PS_RalphW on Fri Nov 26, 2021 3:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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UndercoverElephant
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Re: New coronavirus in/from China

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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59418127
It is also incredibly heavily mutated. Prof Tulio de Oliveira, the director of the Centre for Epidemic Response and Innovation in South Africa, said there was an "unusual constellation of mutations" and that it was "very different" to other variants that have circulated.

"This variant did surprise us, it has a big jump on evolution [and] many more mutations that we expected," he said.

In a media briefing Prof de Oliveira said there were 50 mutations overall and more than 30 on the spike protein, which is the target of most vaccines and the key the virus uses to unlock the doorway into our body's cells.

Zooming in even further to the receptor binding domain (that's the part of the virus that makes first contact with our body's cells), it has 10 mutations compared to just two for the Delta variant that swept the world.

This level of mutation has most likely come from a single patient who was unable to beat the virus.
That is basically a new virus. This could be really bad. It could basically render the entire global vaccination process null and void.

It is already in Europe. Time to close the borders I think.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/worl ... 64825.html
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UndercoverElephant
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Re: New coronavirus in/from China

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https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-new ... s-12478737
Britain is bringing in travel restrictions for six African countries due to a new COVID variant that UK experts have called the "worst one we've seen so far".

Health Secretary Sajid Javid tweeted: "UKHSA (UK Health Security Agency) is investigating a new variant. More data is needed but we're taking precautions now.
Have they learned nothing at all?

It is no use just restricting travel from Africa.

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-new ... s-12478737
Mutations on the spike could therefore potentially prove problematic.

But with only a handful of recorded cases - three in Botswana, around 53 in South Africa and one in Hong Kong from someone who had travelled from South Africa - scientists are hopeful it can be contained.
The scientists are idiots then. How can it be contained if the politicians are only willing to close the stable doors after the horse has bolted?
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clv101
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Re: New coronavirus in/from China

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Oil down 11% since Wednesday, this looks horribly like a repeat of start of Delta, or even March 2020... and the global supply chains / economy really can't take such a repeat.

Good day for doomscrolling.
kenneal - lagger
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Re: New coronavirus in/from China

Post by kenneal - lagger »

Better go out and make sure the larder is well stocked.
Action is the antidote to despair - Joan Baez
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UndercoverElephant
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Re: New coronavirus in/from China

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So what stops this from happening again and again? Just as enough people have been vaccinated to being to return to normal life, one new variant is sufficient to render the vaccinations useless and we're back to square one. The disease might get less severe, but there's no guarantee of that and it might even get worse. Something has to give. We can't just keep the world in permanent risk of lockdown. Eventually we have to learn to live with this virus, even if it kills people.
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PS_RalphW
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Re: New coronavirus in/from China

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I am not saying it will, but there is no reason why covid could not chase us all the way down into global economic collapse. It may become the new black death, decimating the global population and preventing us from totally destroying our own environment, to the point that we do not finish the sixth great species extinction, global warming stops short of 2 degrees, and we leave a few fossil fuels in the ground to give us a second shot at industrial society in a few centuries. However, I don't expect we will be that lucky.
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UndercoverElephant
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Re: New coronavirus in/from China

Post by UndercoverElephant »

Well, that got serious rather quickly:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-59442129
Covid: World races to contain new Omicron variant
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