New coronavirus in/from China

Forum for general discussion of Peak Oil / Oil depletion; also covering related subjects

Moderator: Peak Moderation

User avatar
PS_RalphW
Posts: 6132
Joined: Thu Nov 24, 2005 11:09 am
Location: Cambridge

Re: New coronavirus in/from China

Post by PS_RalphW »

A bit more general medical education. We are all going to die some day. Our bodies age and start falling to bits in a thousand different ways over the decades. Evolution does not care as long as we have had at least two surviving children before we snuff it. In fact, if we didn't die we would begin to compete for resources with our own offspring, some of whom will be better genetically adapted to the ecosystem than us.

The vast majority of people in the UK do not die of a single cause. They have a hundred different morbidities which eventually will kill them if something else, or a combination of a dozen something elses does not get them first. When a new possible cause of death comes along, in this case covid, which has major impacts on several different elements of the body (lungs, brain, kidneys, blood sugar, etc.) it can be and is the last straw which kills many thousands of people who without it would have survived another month, year or decades. In a few cases, covid in itself is enough to kill a fully healthy person directly. In many cases the damage to the lungs is so severe that they would die anyway directly of covid if some co-morbid condition didn't push them over the edge first.

In the UK health system, doctors are pretty good at knowing who is going to die of covid within a week of the infection taking hold. Many people are simply told that they have no realistic chance of surviving the treatment of intensive care and to say goodbye to their loved ones. For the cases that are borderline they are given the full intensive care and ventilation package, but the majority do not survive, and most will never fully recover.

To unpick all this and say how many people died of covid, you need hindsight and statistics. A PCR test for covid is highly specific and accurate for this viral infection, and often simply confirms the symptoms the doctors have already seen in the patient. We now have enough evidence from death certificates (doctors opinions based on symptomatic evidence) pcr tests and excess death figures to be reasonably confident that covid has killed between 130,000 and 160,000 people in the UK so far.

currently 1000 people a week are dying officially of covid. Equal to 50,000 a year, making Covid one of 10 biggest causes of death, maybe in the top 5.
farfrank
Posts: 12
Joined: Wed Oct 06, 2021 11:26 pm
Location: Grand Union Canal, Warwickshire

Re: New coronavirus in/from China

Post by farfrank »

@Ralph

Wise words with regard to shuffling off the mortal coil.

You're right in that viral detection inevitably pulls us into probabalistic medicine; without the context of observed events over time, it's impossible to gauge diagnostic accuracy or the effect of individual factors. This indicates an importance in being circumspect with regard to those individual factors, even if they are novel to the immune system.

If we're unpicking effect through hindsight and statistics, the other variable is the veracity of the statistical base that informs our probabilities. To the best of my knowledge, the statistical foundation for the proportion of infected people derives largely from serology tests, which in all likelihood is the information we're being presented for IFR. That's somewhat worrying, because serology confidence for SARS-COV isn't all that adequate according to the British Medical Journal's meta-analysis on it: "Higher quality clinical studies assessing the diagnostic accuracy of serological tests for covid-19 are urgently needed. Currently, available evidence does not support the continued use of existing point-of-care serological tests."

https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m2516

Hopefully serology or other novel approaches will advance and help us become much better than 45% accurate reporting.

The same artifact issues exist with lateral flow and PCR:

"Meaningful interpretation of any test requires knowledge of its sensitivity (proportion of infected people who test positive), specificity (proportion of non-infected people who test negative), and pre-test probability that an individual is infected, reflecting population prevalence and the individual’s circumstances."

https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n208

So considering the high number of caveats and conditions for accurate interpretation during screening tests, one has to wonder how subjective those judgements are, and whether measures are strong enough to place confidence in those official numbers. As you say, truth will out in hindsight.
dustiswhatweare
Posts: 29
Joined: Sun Jan 24, 2021 1:57 pm

Re: New coronavirus in/from China

Post by dustiswhatweare »

farfrank wrote: Thu Oct 07, 2021 1:23 pm
dustiswhatweare wrote: Thu Oct 07, 2021 1:13 pm
farfrank wrote: Thu Oct 07, 2021 12:47 pm

The issue is in proving that these deaths occured due to Covid; since the virus has not been isolated in the laboratory, all we have to go on are indirect testing methods such as PCR. If co-morbidities are present, which they almost always are, it makes an even more complex picture.

I'd hope that soon we'll find more unambiguous technique to conclude the virus is present, and actually caused death, but this does not yet exist.
This is tiresome farfrank.
My apologies if I'm dissecting strongly-held assumptions dust, but as previous posters here have noted, I think we'd all prefer a situation where we're able to hear different perspectives. It ultimately helps us all get clarity.
I was wrong. it's not tiresome, it's tedious. We have clarity thank you, nothing to do with strongly held assumptions. No need to assume anything. It's a virus, it has demonstrated an ability to kill, to cause long term ill effects, or indeed nothing at all. Vaccines hold these things in check and have the capability to wipe them out if used extensively enough. Take your insidious bollocks elsewhere or find another way to fill your time.
User avatar
Catweazle
Posts: 2949
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2008 12:04 pm
Location: Petite Bourgeois, over the hills

Re: New coronavirus in/from China

Post by Catweazle »

farfrank wrote: Thu Oct 07, 2021 5:24 pm"Currently, available evidence does not support the continued use of existing point-of-care serological tests."
That report is from June 2020. In such a new and fast-moving field I'm not sure it's still relevant.
farfrank
Posts: 12
Joined: Wed Oct 06, 2021 11:26 pm
Location: Grand Union Canal, Warwickshire

Re: New coronavirus in/from China

Post by farfrank »

Catweazle wrote: Thu Oct 07, 2021 6:27 pm
farfrank wrote: Thu Oct 07, 2021 5:24 pm"Currently, available evidence does not support the continued use of existing point-of-care serological tests."
That report is from June 2020. In such a new and fast-moving field I'm not sure it's still relevant.
Thanks Catweazle, I'd be glad if anyone can point me to a more recent study.

Best,

Frank
farfrank
Posts: 12
Joined: Wed Oct 06, 2021 11:26 pm
Location: Grand Union Canal, Warwickshire

Re: New coronavirus in/from China

Post by farfrank »

dustiswhatweare wrote: Thu Oct 07, 2021 6:12 pm
farfrank wrote: Thu Oct 07, 2021 1:23 pm
dustiswhatweare wrote: Thu Oct 07, 2021 1:13 pm

This is tiresome farfrank.
My apologies if I'm dissecting strongly-held assumptions dust, but as previous posters here have noted, I think we'd all prefer a situation where we're able to hear different perspectives. It ultimately helps us all get clarity.
I was wrong. it's not tiresome, it's tedious. We have clarity thank you, nothing to do with strongly held assumptions. No need to assume anything. It's a virus, it has demonstrated an ability to kill, to cause long term ill effects, or indeed nothing at all. Vaccines hold these things in check and have the capability to wipe them out if used extensively enough. Take your insidious bollocks elsewhere or find another way to fill your time.
I haven't been rude or dismissive to anyone in this forum, and I'd hope when speaking about serious topics anyone else would extend me the same courtesy. At the same time, I wouldn't expect any reasonable person to believe in their own infallibility or that they have perfect knowledge of a given situation- surely that's the purpose of these threads?
kenneal - lagger
Site Admin
Posts: 13089
Joined: Wed Sep 20, 2006 2:35 am
Location: Newbury, Berkshire
Contact:

Re: New coronavirus in/from China

Post by kenneal - lagger »

If you go back through the almost 600 pages of this thread, Farfrank, you will find that we have been through all this several times before so if we are a bit short with you it's because we've heard it all before and not been convinced. Have a read and then come back.
Action is the antidote to despair - Joan Baez
farfrank
Posts: 12
Joined: Wed Oct 06, 2021 11:26 pm
Location: Grand Union Canal, Warwickshire

Re: New coronavirus in/from China

Post by farfrank »

kenneal - lagger wrote: Thu Oct 07, 2021 7:09 pm If you go back through the almost 600 pages of this thread, Farfrank, you will find that we have been through all this several times before so if we are a bit short with you it's because we've heard it all before and not been convinced. Have a read and then come back.
Suffice to say Ken, I wouldn't be able to eke out the time to read through the full thread, work being as it is... :cry:

Message heard loud and clear though. I'll take any new information I have elsewhere for discussion.
kenneal - lagger
Site Admin
Posts: 13089
Joined: Wed Sep 20, 2006 2:35 am
Location: Newbury, Berkshire
Contact:

Re: New coronavirus in/from China

Post by kenneal - lagger »

Thanks, Frank. We are primarily interested in resource depletion, originally in the oil industry, climate change and the environment on this forum but current affairs and things like covid which many of us see as just one symptom of the Limits To Growth are also of interest.

Many of us see the same interests behind global warming denial and covid and vaccination denial so your point of view doesn't claim too much attention.
Action is the antidote to despair - Joan Baez
User avatar
Catweazle
Posts: 2949
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2008 12:04 pm
Location: Petite Bourgeois, over the hills

Re: New coronavirus in/from China

Post by Catweazle »

farfrank wrote: Sat Oct 09, 2021 11:39 pm Message heard loud and clear though. I'll take any new information I have elsewhere for discussion.
I'm sure that new information would be welcomed here. As a new member you cannot be expected to know that over the 600 pages of this thread tempers have flared, insults have been written, and sadly members have become radicalized and have left. It wasn't the forums "finest hour".
User avatar
PS_RalphW
Posts: 6132
Joined: Thu Nov 24, 2005 11:09 am
Location: Cambridge

Re: New coronavirus in/from China

Post by PS_RalphW »

Report in the Guardian of peer reviewed research showing pregnant women are more vulnerable to severe complications from catching covid. In the UK at the moment there are 118 patients on ECMO ventilation, where the blood is sent through an artificial lung. 20 of them are not fully vaccinated pregnant women with covid.

This is one reason I detest anti vax campaigners. Pregnant women are one group specifically targeted over fears about the vaccine hurting a feotus.

Our local fly poster seems to have stopped after a note was added to one of his saying they knew who he was and implying that a conviction might be harmful to his legal career.
Stumuz2
Posts: 334
Joined: Tue Dec 01, 2020 9:31 am

Re: New coronavirus in/from China

Post by Stumuz2 »

Good article from Ambrose in the torygraph.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/20 ... e/#comment

Basically, we have a ferocious anti- brexit, anti bojo press,( A robust free press is a good thing) However, this sort of reporting not seen in other countries.
We are in a minority of countries that allow free uncensored covid death reporting,eg the motorcyclist off his tits on cannabis, who died in an rta, and tested positive for covid, died of covid. Not smacking into a wall at 80mph.

"A false narrative is taking hold that the UK has been an egregious outlier of the pandemic. This has become entangled with Brexit and visceral hostility to Boris Johnson’s Government in part of the British media, picked up in turn and amplified by the global journalistic establishment.

It is almost an article of faith in these circles that the UK is governed by virus-denying, climate-denying, Trumpian-Bolsonaro populists. Events are bent mercilessly to fit this mental and ideological frame"
User avatar
Mark
Posts: 1638
Joined: Thu Dec 13, 2007 8:48 am
Location: NW England

Re: New coronavirus in/from China

Post by Mark »

Stumuz2 wrote: Thu Oct 14, 2021 11:03 am Good article from Ambrose in the torygraph.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/20 ... e/#comment

Basically, we have a ferocious anti- brexit, anti bojo press,( A robust free press is a good thing) However, this sort of reporting not seen in other countries.
We are in a minority of countries that allow free uncensored covid death reporting,eg the motorcyclist off his tits on cannabis, who died in an rta, and tested positive for covid, died of covid. Not smacking into a wall at 80mph.

"A false narrative is taking hold that the UK has been an egregious outlier of the pandemic. This has become entangled with Brexit and visceral hostility to Boris Johnson’s Government in part of the British media, picked up in turn and amplified by the global journalistic establishment.

It is almost an article of faith in these circles that the UK is governed by virus-denying, climate-denying, Trumpian-Bolsonaro populists. Events are bent mercilessly to fit this mental and ideological frame"
We have all shades of opinion in 'the press' and other media on COVID, Brexit, climate change and everything else - that's one of the great things about this country....

You're just sore because the light is being shone on the utterly inept and corrupt shambles we have with BoJo and his government....
Covid: UK's early response worst public health failure ever, MPs say:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-58876089

If you think BoJo's getting a raw deal, consider how Corbyn was portrayed by the press (& no, I wasn't one of his supporters either)
kenneal - lagger
Site Admin
Posts: 13089
Joined: Wed Sep 20, 2006 2:35 am
Location: Newbury, Berkshire
Contact:

Re: New coronavirus in/from China

Post by kenneal - lagger »

Its wonderful what you can say about the responce to a completely unprecedented situation with the benefit of hindsight.
Action is the antidote to despair - Joan Baez
User avatar
clv101
Site Admin
Posts: 9140
Joined: Thu Nov 24, 2005 11:09 am
Contact:

Re: New coronavirus in/from China

Post by clv101 »

kenneal - lagger wrote: Fri Oct 15, 2021 3:15 am Its wonderful what you can say about the responce to a completely unprecedented situation with the benefit of hindsight.
You don't need hindsight, just look at what many doctors, scientists and indeed some of us on this very forum were saying back in February 20.
Post Reply