Swine Fever - any thoughts?

[adam2]

30-40% of people sick globally at the same time is not a happy scenario.

Since there is a limited supply of qualified oil workers and we were at current physical infrastructure peak last year (if not yet at geological peak) then what effect will this have on oil supplies if 40% of oil workers are out of the picture? And oil tanker delivery guys etc etc?

That said, if this flu prevents the American "driving season" from taking place then there may be much more muted demand for oil.

Whatever happens, 2009 is going to be very, very interesting.

To produce oil from existing infrastructure does not take that many skilled workers.
The large skilled workforce in the oil industry are largely engaged in exploration, and in building new infrastructure to exploit new discoveries.
The work force in a large oil refinery, is partly engaged in maintenance, which can be postponed, rather than production.

Some staff could be replaced by troops, and other staff shortages can be covered by overtime working, and by deffering less important work.

At present there is a surplus of crude oil, with many tankers being used as floating storage. Saudi Arabia has some spare capacity that has been shut down to support prices.

I would be more concerned about food and electric power than oil.

[happychicken]

Seal yourself in, eat your freeze dried LATOC food, then in 3 months when nowts happened, try and explain to your boss where you've been.

It might all last a lot longer than 3 months before it goes away

Some experts think that the worst of the Pandemic effects won't hit in the Northern hemisphere until we hit the Autumn/Winter seasonal flu season

[Bozzio]

Indonesian minister says swine flu could be man-made

Indonesian minister says swine flu could be man-made
Agence France-Presse | 04/28/2009 3:22 PM

JAKARTA - Indonesian Heath Minister Siti Fadilah Supari said Tuesday the deadly swine flu virus could have been man-made, as she urged calm over its spread around the world.

The controversial minister did not elaborate but in the past she has said Western governments could be making and spreading viruses in the developing world to boost pharmaceutical companies' profits.

"I'm not sure whether the virus was genetically engineered but it's a possibility," she told reporters at a press conference called to reassure the public over the government's response to the swine flu threat.

No cases of the disease have been reported in Indonesia, the country worst hit by the bird flu virus which has killed about 250 people worldwide since 2003.

Indonesian authorities have increased body temperature scanners at airports and banned imports of live pigs and pork products, amid World Health Organisation (WHO) warnings of a pandemic.

Supari, a cardiologist, also claimed that the H1N1 strain of swine flu, which is believed to have killed more than 150 people in Mexico, could not survive in tropical countries like Indonesia.

"We have to be alert at all times although swine flu in Indonesia is not a cause for panic," she said.

"H1N1 survives in countries with four seasons. The type A H1N1 virus hopefully won't be able to sustain itself once it enters the tropical climate of Indonesia," she added.

The virus has been found in 11 countries including Mexico, the United States and Spain, while several other countries from Colombia to New Zealand are investigating suspected cases.

Supari said the health ministry had prepared 100 hospitals to handle swine flu cases should the disease enter Indonesia.

The minister has refused since 2006 to share all but a handful of Indonesia's bird flu virus samples with WHO researchers, saying the system is being abused by rich countries to develop profitable vaccines which poor countries must buy.

[happychicken]

Indonesian minister says swine flu could be man-made

Nature's much better than man at producing these things

[Bozzio]

Cheesy US ads for the 70's swine flu epidemic anyone?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i3YCTnbRgm8

[Erik]

Whatever happens, 2009 is going to be very, very interesting.

And 2010 and 2011 and 2012 and 2013 (for those who believe there will still be a world to be lived in beyond 2012) etc.
I don't think we will ever see another non-interesting year - there's just too much fascinating stuff going on all over the world. Whatever we die of it won't be boredom.

[gug]

Indonesian minister says swine flu could be man-made

Nature's much better than man at producing these things

Might be that Rumsfeld and his buddies want to make a bit more cash...

http://www.snopes.com/politics/medical/tamiflu.asp

[Catweazle]

I mentioned to Mrs Catweazle that she might like to get a bit extra in on the weekly shop, not because of shortages but to avoid having to mix with people if this flu kicks off big-time.

When I came in from work I tripped over 3 x 15 can boxes of John Smiths, two crates of Brakspear Triple and numerous boxes of Becks lager.

It seems our ideas on preparations differ.

[2 As and a B]

Maybe she's planning on keeping you tanked up for the shopping.

Edited for silly typo

[mikepepler]

This one's pricesless:
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2009/04/30/dhs_swine_flu/

From the US dept of homeland security:
"We're also actively monitoring travellers at our land, sea, and air ports. We're watching them for signs of illness, and we have appropriate protocols in place to deal with those who are sick. Precautions are being taken to protect travellers and border personnel. Anyone exhibiting symptoms is being referred to an isolation room where they can be evaluated by a public health official before proceeding to their destruction."

The original article has now been corrected:
http://www.dhs.gov/ynews/releases/pr_1241056994692.shtm

There's a footnote that says "corrected typo; changed destruction to destination"

[PS_RalphW]

Initial genetic analysis indicates a highly infectious, but mild form of influenza. It is no more likely to mutate into a more deadly form than any other flu virus.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/health/8028371.stm

[PS_RalphW]

Hasn't it gone quiet around here?

People must be out enjoying the sunshine. Wish I was.

Talking of which, this swine flu panic is rapidly fading from the headlines.

That may be premature, because it still has a good chance of infecting 10-30% of the population, and even with a 'normal' mortality of about 1% (mostly old or sick people) that is between 60,000 and 180,000 excess deaths. Natural death rate in the UK is about 3,000 people a day from all causes.

Fortunately, with the Met Office predicting a warm , dry summer, the chance of this fizzling out altogether is rising, or it might be held in check long enough for a vaccine to be ready to protect most of the vulnerable.

Not that the poor, huddled masses in the third world will benefit. This flu will probably kill hundreds of thousands, but we will never hear about it.

[snow hope]

It was very noticeable how it had faded into about 5th position on the evening news last night - it was so noticeable how the media must have been told to calm it down. The sudden change from previous days was a real tell-tale sign.

It really is amazing how much the media is controlled by TPTB...... (whether Govt. or whoever).

We mustn't panic the plebs. too much you know! Move along now.

I must add that this is a sign that things could be worse than we are being told. The fact that it is now being down-played is not a good sign in my opinion. We should know if this is the case within a week or so.

[2 As and a B]

Go to sleep children. Nothing to worry about.

[Ludwig]

I think I saw it suggested somewhere that the swine flu story was blown out of proportion by various government-linked PR machines, in order to deflect attention from the report into torture in US-run prisons. We'll never know, but it's surely not beyond the realm of possibility.